In this chapter we will discuss
the different investment options of the variable annuity. This chapter will
also discuss how to read a prospectus.
The Commitment
We could probably all agree that the easiest
part of investing into a variable annuity is the actual step of choosing to
invest in a variable annuity. Along with this choice an investor should
understand their investment objectives, time horizons, risk tolerances, the
basics of asset allocation and the investment objectives of the annuity's
sub-accounts. The initial investment requires the investor to make two
straightforward decisions:
1.
How much money will be
invested?
2.
How will the purchase be
made; as a lump sum or as a series of payments?
Once the investor has made the decision to
purchase an annuity, they must then make a determination on where to invest
annuity contributions. On the positive side, there are no absolute rules,
although the variables remain the same: investment objective, time horizon and
risk tolerance when selecting appropriate sub-accounts.
The investor does hold an ace in his back
pocket in that they can rely on the expert money managers, not the individual
securities, or sub-accounts. Sub-account managers select individual securities
for the sub-accounts, thus the investor then selects the most appropriate
sub-accounts for their portfolio.
This may sound exactly like a mutual fund
investment. There is a good reason for that. It is exactly like a mutual fund
investment. When an investor chooses a mutual fund, they can rely upon the
professional money managers, convenience and economies of scale. Variable
annuity sub-accounts are mutual funds within an insurance contract and are
chosen as investment vehicles for the same reasons mutual funds are chosen.
Although an added benefit of variable annuities is that of tax-deferred wealth
accumulation. Mutual fund features and benefits remain the same, even when they
are called sub-accounts.
Another common feature between variable
annuities and mutual funds is that they are usually identified by their investment
company and their primary investment objective and/or primary group of
securities. An example of this would be Spectacular U.S. Government Bond Fund
versus Spectacular Aggressive Growth Fund.
Variable annuity sub-accounts include the
name of their primary investment objective (Aggressive Growth, Balanced or
Specialty Portfolios) and/or primary group of securities. They can also include
the name of the issuing insurer, the mutual fund company and/or the investment
advisor managing the assets and the fund's investment objective. Variable
annuity sub-accounts require a more descriptive name to understand its
structure.
Insurers employ one or more
of four distinct strategies
when managing sub-account assets.
Most
investment companies employ in-house money managers to manage their family of
mutual funds. Managing the assets of an insurer's variable annuity sub-accounts
can be complex. Insurers employ one or more of four distinct strategies when
managing sub-account assets:
1.
Manage all sub-accounts
internally. Assets are managed by money managers employed by the insurer.
2.
Engage an independent
investment advisor group as money manager for all sub-accounts. Assets are
managed by independent money managers contracted by the insurer to do so.
3.
Employ multiple
independent advisors who specialize in a specific investment and who manage a
specific sub-account. An insurer could contract a company to manage all
equity sub-accounts and a different company to manage all fixed income
sub-accounts.
4.
Employ an independent
investment advisor to manager a certain group of sub-accounts and manage some
sub-accounts internally. An insurer could manage all fixed income
sub-accounts internally, while contracting a company to manage all equity
sub-accounts.
The long-term investment result and record of
consistency demonstrated by the financial advisor are very important. The asset
management structure for managing sub-accounts' assets is not as important.
It is important for the annuity investor that
they understand:
What sub-account investment
alternatives there are available,
The investment objectives
of each sub-account,
The investment policies,
and
Whether there are a
sufficient number of investment alternatives available within a variable
annuity sub-account structure to maintain an effective asset-allocation
model.
Sub-Accounts
An investor needs to understand the
relationship between the separate account and the sub-account to
effectively select the appropriate investment option. A separate account (accumulation
account) is a master investment account that acts as a channel to the
established accounts. All funds invested flow through the separate account's
channel into various sub-accounts. Each sub-account has a specific investment
objective. Thus, combined with the other sub-accounts, this provides the
investor the choice and the flexibility to select substantially different
portfolios to meet asset-allocation and diversification demands.
Mutual fund investors purchase shares,
whereas annuity sub-account investors purchase accumulation units.
Accumulation units are to variable annuities as fund shares are to mutual
funds. Accumulation units are purchased by the investor at net asset value
(NAV), without commissions, in full and fractional units. No-load
mutual funds are also purchased at net asset value (NAV). Load mutual funds
that charge commissions are purchased from the net proceeds after deducting
commissions. In rare circumstances, the investment company if requested by the
investor can issue mutual fund share certificates. The request is not
recommended by most experts. Sub-account accumulation unit certificates are
never issued.
Accumulation units are to
variable annuities
as fund shares are to mutual funds.
The net
asset value (NAV) of each accumulation unit is determined at the close of
trading of the New York Stock Exchange each day the Exchange is open.
Accumulation unit values are determined each day by the insurer or the
financial advisor. This is extremely vital and necessary because daily
purchases and daily redemption prices are based on the net asset value (NAV),
or closing price, by either calling the insurer or consulting various financial
publications.
Sub-Account Options
Variable annuity sub-account choices and
numbers depend on the contract, but normally sufficient flexibility exists with
most variable annuities. Understanding the investment objectives of each
sub-account is critical in choosing an asset-allocation mix that matches the
financial objectives and investment risk tolerance of an individual investor.
It is safe to say that most investors seek a consistent, competitive return and
the preservation of their investment.
Most people probably understand the
importance of financial planning and the security it provides. However, few
investors understand the variation of financial planning and asset-allocation
techniques. Thus, enter the agent and/or financial planner. Even fewer
investors understand or appreciate risk tolerance and the management of risk.
Variable annuity sub-accounts can be divided
into four broad categories:
1.
Those seeking capital
appreciation (stocks),
2.
Those seeking fixed
income (bonds),
3.
Those combining stock
and bonds (referred to as balanced), and
4.
Those offering fixed
income money market rates.
As discussed previously, a breakdown used to
narrow the universe of sub-accounts should be based on performance, risk
control, expense minimization, investment options, family rating and management.
To fully understand the sub-accounts, we must understand how sub-accounts are
ranked by various financial publications.
Performance
Normally, return figures and the subsequent
ratings are based on the three calendar years ending on a certain date. For
instance, it is common to use December 31 as an ending date. In the event that
two or more sub-accounts are competing for the same category, a five year
period will normally be used to compare and rate the sub-accounts. Performance
figures represent total return figures: unit appreciation plus any dividends or
interest payments are included.
When reading financial publications about
variable annuity sub-accounts, you may notice that a three to five year period
is used to rate their performance. This is because only a handful of variable
accounts have been in existence for a ten year time horizon. On the other-hand,
performance over one year is also not used because such figures could be the
result of either luck or a one time event, thus not proving an accurate
financial picture to go by.
Only a handful of variable annuity
sub-accounts
have been in existence for a 10 year time horizon.
All
performance figures should include a tabulation that shows how the sub-account
has performed against a specific index. This kind of comparison to a specific
index, such as the Russell 2000 for equity sub-accounts, will show how a
particular sub-account has performed against its appropriate benchmark over
each of the past several years.
Risk Control
Risk-adjusted return looks at how well a sub-account performed, based on the
amount of risk it took. Everyone would like to get a great return on an
investment without taking much risk. This, however, is not usually possible.
More often than not, risk corresponds with return. Earning a 100 percent return
on principal sounds very appealing, but if someone suggested this would require
us to go to Reno and play Black-Jack, few people would sign up for the trip.
If an account receives high marks for risk
control, it means that the fund took X amount of risk but received an X plus Y
rate of return. A portfolio that is rated poorly in this area may still have
good results but may take higher than normal risks compared to its peer group.
This does not mean, however, that individuals should avoid variable annuities
that are rated either fair or poor for risk control. A higher than normal risk
can be counterbalanced by the addition of a low risk investment in the
investor's portfolio. Again, an understanding of the individual sub-account's
investment objectives will enable an investor to make important risk decisions.
Expense Minimization
The impact of expense minimization is often
exaggerated by the media and by investors and advisors who focus on statistics.
It is true that a 0.25% added expense will have an impact on an investor's total
return in the long run. However, this is not nearly as important as selecting
the right category to begin with, or even whether selecting a good portfolio
manager who is conscious of risk-adjusted returns.
For the investors that would like to see a full
picture, total expenses, including the annual contract charge, are rated in
certain publications. This is the most straightforward and objective of the
rated categories. On the other-hand, it is also, almost always, the least
important.
Investment Options
This category is the most complex to measure.
Variable annuity sub-accounts should be rewarded with a favorable rating if
they allow dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and/or allow a high number of transfers
per year. This gives the investor the greatest amount of control over their
investment. Most of the rating for this characteristic should be based on the
number of sub-accounts available within the variable annuity "family"
and the diversification of such choices or options.
Family Rating
This characteristic points out how many
sub-accounts are available within the various variable annuity contracts and
the caliber of these investment options. This is based on their respective
risk-adjusted returns. A "family" is the number of choices
offered to the investor. This family could be quite small, but still get the
highest rating if most or all of the sub-accounts performed excellently when
viewed on a risk-adjusted return basis.
Management
A sub-account must either possess an
excellent risk-adjusted return or have had superior returns with very low
levels of risk. It is assumed that most investors are equally concerned with
risk and reward. Thus, when looking at various annuity contracts, the
foundation of the text should be based on which variable annuity sub-accounts
have the best risk-adjusted returns. The rating for this characteristic should
be based on the sub-account's performance and risk control, both of which are
usually heavily influenced by management.
Each of the following options will be categorized
into one of the four broad categories listed on page 47. The sub-account
breakdown used is as follows:
Aggressive Growth
Growth
Growth & Income
International Stocks
Balanced
Corporate Bonds
Government Bonds
High-Yield Bonds
Global & International Bonds (World Bonds)
Specialty Portfolios (Sector Portfolios)
Aggressive Growth
Sub-Account
Seeking Capital Appreciation
This type of sub-account seeks to provide
investors with maximum capital appreciation by investing in aggressive, less
seasoned growth stocks. They focus strictly on appreciation, with no concern
about generating income. Aggressive growth sub-accounts strive for maximum
capital growth, frequently using such trading strategies as leveraging,
purchasing restricted securities or buying stocks of emerging growth companies.
Diversification is gained through a stock portfolio of aggressive growth,
emerging growth and small capitalization company stocks. The portfolio
composition is almost always completely comprised of U.S. stocks.
The Aggressive Growth
objective is
maximum growth of the investment.
Aggressive
growth sub-accounts can go up in value quite rapidly during times of strong
market advances. These sub-accounts will often outperform other categories of
U.S. stocks during bull markets (strong market advances), but
experience worse than average losses during bear markets (market
declines). Usually small company stocks are less volatile than the better known
aggressive growth stocks. Small company refers to stocks whose market capitalization
is less than $1 billion.
Aggressive growth portfolios can provide low
income distributions. This is because they tend to be fully invested in common
stocks that pay small or no cash dividends. A small or nonexistent dividend
stream is unimportant for the annuity investor since tax liabilities are no
immediate concern. A high turnover rate can result in a large capital gains
liability for the mutual fund investor, whereas the annuity investor does not
share this same liability because the annuity has tax-deferred growth.
Investing in this type of sub-account is not
for the weak-hearted. It should be advised only for the sophisticated investor
who maintains a well-diversified portfolio, who understands the importance of a
long term investment strategy, who understands risk and volatility and who can
sustain investment losses that are often substantially higher than those
experienced in a more conservative portfolio. The investor who plans on
participating for a long term and is not concerned with monthly or yearly
variations, this aggressive growth portfolio can be very rewarding.
While aggressive growth sub-accounts present
higher risks, the news is not at all a discouragement. The risks on these types
of investments tend to dissolve over longer periods of time and aggressive
growth sub-accounts normally produce a highly competitive long term result.
"Over the 15 years ending December 31,
1994, small stocks outperformed common stocks by 18%, as measured by the
Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index. From 1980 to 1977, small stocks averaged
17.0% (compounded per year) versus 15.7% for common stocks. A $10,000
investment in small stock grew to $105,600 over the 15-year period; a similar
initial investment in the S&P 500 grew to $89,300." - The Hundred Best
Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
"During the 30 years ending December 31,
1994, there were eleven 20-year periods (e.g., 1964-1983, 1965-1984, and so
on). The Small Stock Index, made up from the smallest 20% of companies listed
on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), as measured by market capitalization, outperformed
the S&P 500 in all of those 20-year periods.
"During the 20 years ending December 31,
1994, there were eleven 10-year periods (e.g., 1974-1983, 1975-1984, and so
on). The Small Stock Index outperformed the S&P 500 in six of those
eleven 10-year periods.
"Over the 50 years ending December 31,
994, there were forty-one 10-year periods (e.g., 1944-1953, 1945-1954, and so
on). The Small Stock Index outperformed the S&P 500 in twenty-seven
of those forty-one 10-year periods.
"A dollar invested in small stocks in
1945 grew to over $1,230 by the beginning of 1995. This translates into an
average compound return of 15.3% per year. Over the 50-year period, the worst
year for small stocks was 1973, when a loss of 31% was suffered. Two years
later, these same stock posted a gain of almost 53% in one year. The best year
was 1967, when small stock posted a gain of 84%."
The chart below shows that the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts in 1994, 1992,
1991, 1989, 1987, and for the 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods ending December 31,
1994.
The table below shows statistics that may be
useful when comparing variable annuity sub-accounts versus their mutual fund
counterparts.
Average Annual Returns:
Aggressive Growth
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Aggressive Growth Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-1.0% |
-1.3% |
1993 |
17.0% |
17.9% |
1992 |
11.2% |
8.6% |
1991 |
55.6% |
50.4% |
1990 |
-8.4% |
-7.9% |
1989 |
31.3% |
27.2% |
1988 |
11.5% |
15.7% |
1987 |
-2.5% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
13.1% |
8.3% |
5-year average |
12.1% |
11.5% |
10-year average |
14.5% |
13.3% |
It should be noted or advised that aggressive
growth sub-accounts should generally comprise only a small percentage of a
total portfolio for even the most aggressive investor.
Growth Sub-Accounts
Seeking Capital Appreciation
This type of variable annuity sub-account's
objective is to provide investors with steady capital appreciation by investing
in a diversified portfolio of well-seasoned and financially sound companies.
Current income is treated as a secondary concern. Growth sub-accounts typically
invest in U.S. common stocks while avoiding speculative issues and aggressive
trading techniques. Growth sub-accounts are invested into growth oriented firms
that pay cash dividends and the concentration of assets is not as limited as
the Aggressive Growth portfolios. The goal of most of these sub-accounts is
long term growth. The approaches used to attain this appreciation can vary
widely among these sub-accounts. The companies are normally include in the
Standard & Poor's 500 and have demonstrated the ability to produce strong
and consistent earnings, steady growth and regular dividend payments. Even
though dividend payments are a secondary concern, these companies have
generally paid dividends over a long period of time.
The goal of most Growth
Sub-accounts is long-term growth.
Because
the Growth sub-account is "safer" and less volatile, long term
performance of these investments have a lower earnings ratio than Aggressive
Growth sub-accounts. A tolerance for moderate risk is still necessary to invest
in solid growth stocks, but over the long term, more than ten years, growth
stocks have always outperformed other types of investments. This is especially
true of bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs). This investment is suitable for
investors seeking an above-average return from seasoned stocks and those who
are willing to accept reasonable long term risk.
During prolonged market declines, Growth
portfolios can sustain severe declines also. Since some portfolio managers of
Growth sub-accounts attempt to time the market over a longer cycle, switching
these funds often may be counterproductive. Although market timing is strongly
discouraged, doing so with variable annuities will not trigger a tax liability
that may occur with mutual fund market timing.
"Over the 15 years from 1979-1993,
growth stocks outperformed government bonds by 74%. Common stocks averaged
15.7% compounded per year, versus 11.5% for government bonds. A $10,000
investment in stocks, as measured by the S&P 5000, grew to over $89,3000
over the 15-year period; a similar initial investment in government bonds grew
to $51,3000." - The Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K.
Williamson
"Within a longer time frame, common
stocks have also fared quite well. A dollar invested in stocks in 1945 grew to
over $330 by the beginning of 1995. This translates into an average compound
return of 12.3% per year. Over the 50 years ending December 31, 1994, the worst
year for common stocks was 1974, when a loss of 26% was suffered. One year
later, these same stocks posted a gain of 37%. The best year was 1954, when
growth stock posted a gain of 53%.
"Over the past half-century, growth
stocks have outperformed bonds in every single decade. If President George
Washington has invested $1 in common stocks with an average return of 12%, his
investment would be worth over $68.7 billion today. If he had enough luck to
average 14% on his stock portfolio, his portfolio would be large enough to pay
off our national debt four times over."
The chart below shows that the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts in 1991, 1989,
and 1987.
"The variable annuity
subaccounts outperformed
their mutual fund counterparts for 1991, 1989, and 1987."
Gordon K.
Williamson goes on to relate: "Growth subaccounts should be part of
everyone's holdings. They should comprise no more than 25% in a diversified,
conservative portfolio, 50% for the moderate risk-taker, and 75% for the
aggressive investor. I recommend a 10% commitment to this category for the
moderate and aggressive portfolio. Notice that other stock categories
(international, growth and income and aggressive growth) are also recommended.
As with any category of variable annuities, whenever larger dollar amounts are
involved, more than one subaccount per category should be used."
If the investor's goal is to meet the
challenges of inflation, conservative and seasoned stocks are the most
appropriate long term investments.
"Growth stocks should always be a larger
portion of a variable annuity's long term asset-allocation model." - All
About Variable Annuities by Bruce F. Wells
The chart below shows a year by year, as well
as a three, five and ten year average for the Growth investment category. As
with this table, the variable annuity sub-account is compared with the similar
mutual fund category. The performance figures are average figures, representing
all funds and sub-accounts that fall within this investment goal.
Average Annual Returns:
Growth
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Growth Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-2.9% |
-2.1% |
1993 |
11.3% |
11.6% |
1992 |
6.7% |
8.4% |
1991 |
36.9% |
36.7% |
1990 |
-6.2% |
-5.1% |
1989 |
27.9% |
26.8% |
1988 |
11.2% |
14.9% |
1987 |
3.1% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
4.9% |
5.9% |
5-year average |
8.3% |
8.9% |
10-year average |
12.0% |
12.8% |
Growth & Income Sub-Accounts
Combining Stock and Bonds
This type of variable annuity sub-account's objective
is to provide investors with a competitive, long term total return by investing
in a portfolio that combines both growth stock (equities) and bonds (fixed
income). These sub-accounts seek to produce both capital appreciation and
current income, with a priority given to appreciation potential in the stock
purchased. This kind investment strategy attempts to reduce risk and produce a
more consistent and competitive return through the diversification of asset
classes. The goal of these sub-accounts is to provide long term growth without
excessive risk in share price.
The goal of these
sub-accounts is to provide long term growth without excessive risk in share
price.
An equity
income portfolio is conservative by its design, places a high emphasis on the
preservation of the sub-account's assets and is almost exclusively comprised of
U.S. stocks with a majority invested on utility, computer, energy, retail, and
financial common stocks. The sub-accounts also provide higher income
distributions, fewer variations in return and greater diversification than
Growth and Aggressive Growth sub-accounts. The growth stocks in the portfolio
will usually be weighed toward well-seasoned stocks that pay above-average
dividends. The sub-account also contains high-grade convertible bonds and
fixed-income securities. An equity income portfolio that produces consistent
performance over the long term, is judged successful. Equity income, income and
total return are sub-accounts that are characteristic of Growth and Income portfolios.
The attractive quality of this sub-account is
its consistent performance. Using this sub-account as an investor's approach to
asset allocation is great if they want to lower their risk and receive
consistent returns. By selecting securities that have comparatively high
returns, the investor's overall risk is reduced. Dividends will help
"hike-up" the overall return of growth and income sub-accounts during
negative market conditions.
While the investor may be offered a number of
growth stock sub-account alternatives, the primary choices are Aggressive
Growth, Growth and Growth and Income. Within the three equity sub-account
classes, there are multiple choices that include:
Most variable annuity sub-account investment
options will be discussed in this manual. However, it should be noted that it
is impossible for any variable annuity contract to offer an infinite array of
investment choices, nor would it even be necessary. A good variable annuity
contract should offer sufficient investment choices, not an infinite number of
investment choices. In this case, more is not better.
"The appropriate initial
investment decision is
asset class (stock and/or bonds);
the subsequent choice is sub-accounts, not vice versa."
- All About
Variable Annuities by Bruce F. Wells
"Over
the 50 years ending December 31, 1994, common stocks outperformed inflation, on
average: 70% of the time over 1-year periods; 82% of the time over 5-year
intervals; 83% of the time over 10-year periods; and 100% of the time over any
given 20-year period of time. Over the same 50-year period, high-quality,
long-term corporate bonds outperformed inflation, on average: 60% of the time
over 1-year periods; 50% of the time over 5-year intervals; 46% of the time
over 10-year periods; and 48% over any given 20-year period." - The
Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
Gordon K. Williamson goes on to relate:
"I recommend a 10% commitment to this category for the conservative
investor, 15% for the moderate, and 10% for the aggressive portfolio. This is
one of the few categories of subaccounts that is recommended for all types of
portfolios. As with any category of variable annuities, whenever larger dollar
amounts are involved, more than one sub-account per category should be
used."
The chart below shows that the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts only in 1994,
1988, and for the 3-year period.
Average Annual Returns:
Growth and Income
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-0.3% |
-1.5% |
1993 |
10.6% |
10.8% |
1992 |
7.7% |
8.3% |
1991 |
26.7% |
28.8% |
1990 |
-6.3% |
-4.7% |
1989 |
21.3% |
23.3% |
1988 |
16.9% |
14.8% |
1987 |
0.1% |
2.1% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
6.6% |
5.8% |
5-year average |
7.6% |
7.8% |
10-year average |
12.2% |
13.3% |
International Stocks
This type of variable annuity sub-account
invests for capital appreciation through portfolio invested in foreign equity
securities of companies whose primary operations are outside the United States.
International stocks invest in securities of foreign companies; they do not
invest in U.S. stock at all. Global sub-accounts invest in both foreign and
U.S. stocks.
Normally an international stock sub-account
will diversify with securities from a number of foreign countries. Foreign
markets have grown to represent over two-thirds of the world's capitalization
and annualized returns during the past ten years. Funds are available for
specific countries or specific regions. The areas that dominate the world stock
funds are the United States, Japan, Europe and the Pacific Rim. Investing in
foreign securities requires sophisticated and specialized knowledge. Returns
are affected not only by a foreign company's earnings but also by currency
transactions and the local political environment.
International stocks invest
in securities of foreign companies; they do not invest in U.S. stock at
all.
This type
of sub-account should only be invested in by sophisticated investors who are
willing to assume a greater degree of risk. The opportunities for above-average
returns are greater, but are also counterbalanced by the additional market and
currency risks. Even with the greater risks, it should still be considered. By
investing abroad, an investor is investing in different economies that
experience prosperity and recession at different times. During the 1980s,
foreign stocks were the number-one performing investment, averaging a compound
return of over 22 percent per year, versus the 17 percent for U.S. stock and
the nine percent for residential real estate. The bottom-line is that
international funds provide an investor with added diversification. In fact,
the more independent these foreign markets become in relation to the U.S.
market, the greater the diversification potential for the investor, thus
lowering the total risk to the investor.
If an investor invested in the foreign
markets directly, they would have to know and understand thoroughly the foreign
brokerage process, international taxes, and the various marketplaces and their
economics. They would have to be aware of currency fluctuation trends as well
as have access to reliable financial information so a proper investment
decision could be made. This is nearly impossible for the individual investor.
Expert money managers allow the average investor to take advantage of the
foreign markets.
The economic outlook of foreign countries is
the major factor in the professional money managers decision regarding
international investing. A secondary concern may the value of the U.S. dollar
relative to the foreign currencies.
Trying to determine the direction of any
currency is as difficult as trying to figure out what the U.S. stock market
will do on any given day.
Investors who do not wish to be subjected to
the currency swings may opt to use a variable annuity subaccount that practices
currency hedging. Currency hedging is basically an insurance policy to
protect one's investment if the dollar is making a killing in currency futures
contracts. It only pays off if the dollar becomes strong, increasing in value
against the currencies represented by the portfolio. The cost of this type of
insurance becomes part of the cost of doing business. In the case of currency
contracts, the contract expires and a new one is purchased, covering another
period of time. When properly handled, the gains in the futures contracts (the
insurance policy) can offset most or all of the security losses attributed to a
strong U.S. dollar. An investor may believe that buying currency contracts is a
risky business for the sub-account, but if done properly it is not.
As with any type of insurance it only pays
off if there is an "accident". Currency hedging pays off if the U.S.
dollar increases in value against the currencies represented by the portfolio's
securities. However, if the dollar remains level or even decreases in value,
the insurance policy does not pay because the investment is not loosing. The
foreign securities increase in value and the currency contracts become
worthless when the U.S. dollar remains level or decreases in value.
Is currency hedging important on a
risk-adjusted basis? Consider this: how do a foreign and U.S. stock portfolio
fare against each other? Answer: over the last ten years from 1983 to 1993,
U.S. stocks had a risk level 16, versus just over 17 for foreign equities. When
currency hedging is added to the portfolio, the international risk level falls
to 13 and the U.S. level stay at 16.
An integrated world economy has evolved over
the decade from 1983 to 1993 from many distinct national economies of the past.
Many investment opportunities once thought to be uniquely American have
gradually shifted to other areas around the world. Today, there is over 60
percent of stock market capitalization represented by non-U.S. companies. The
case for internationally diversifying portfolios has never been stronger.
Especially with the recent trade agreements, such as NAFTA and GATT, the case
for international portfolios is even stronger. For an investor to earn
competitive returns, U.S. investors can no longer afford to ignore foreign
opportunities - or be afraid of them.
It has already been stated that all investors
want to increase their investment returns and reduce their portfolio risk.
These are two compelling reasons to invest in the international market. Global
investing allows an investor to maximize their returns by investing in some of
the world's best-managed and most profitable companies. The most potential for
growth is in countries that are industrializing, having the cheapest labor and
the richest natural resources while remaining undervalued.
Diversification is commonly
known to reduce risk.
The
Pacific Basin which includes Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand,
Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, has experienced phenomenal growth and
represents 34 percent of today's world stock market capital. This is nearly
double what is was ten years ago. Japan is the most economically mature country
in the Pacific Basin. It has become a dominant force behind the development of
the newly industrialized countries (NICs) of Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand,
Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. As the demand for Japanese products increases,
costs in Japan have also increased, so the need to find affordable production
of goods has caused Japanese investment to flow into neighboring countries,
thus fostering their development as economically independent and prosperous
countries.
The newly industrialized nations (NICs)
possess some of the world's cheapest labor and richest untapped natural
resources. Because of this, they have recently experienced a phenomenal influx
of international investment capital.
Experienced investors have known the names of
many of Europe's major producers such as Nestle', Volkswagen or Perrier.
Europe's impressive manufacturing capacity with its diverse industrial base and
quality labor pools can make it an environment for growth and accessible to
U.S. investors through variable annuities that have foreign and global
sub-accounts.
"European markets have proven time and
again that they represent tremendous investment potential. From 1983 to 1993,
European markets have consistently produced greater total returns than the U.S.
stock market, which averaged 14.8% over this same period." - The Hundred
Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
Gordon K. Williamson goes on to relate:
"With economic deregulation and the elimination of internal trade
barriers, many European companies, for the first time in their history, are
investing in and competing for exposure to the whole European market. Companies
currently restricted to manufacturing and distributing within their national
boundaries will soon be able to locate facilities anywhere in Europe,
maximizing the efficient employment of labor, capital and, raw materials.
"Like any other subaccount category,
this one should not be looked at in a vacuum. The real beauty of foreign
subaccounts shines through when they are combined with other categories of U.S.
equities."
As the following table will show, variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1994,
1993, and 1990.
One of the important things to remember is
that international investing reduces overall risk of an investor's portfolio.
Besides reducing risk, they can also provide excellent returns. According to a
Standford University study, overall risk is cut in half when a global portfolio
of stock is used instead of one based on U.S. issued stock alone. Another study
showed that the least volatile investment portfolio would be composed of 60
percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent foreign stocks. These studies reflect the
importances of balancing a portfolio between U.S. and foreign equities.
Average Annual Returns:
International Stocks
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-1.1% |
-2.9% |
1993 |
33.0% |
31.3% |
1992 |
-6.9% |
-0.8% |
1991 |
-10.5% |
18.4% |
1990 |
7.7% |
-10.8% |
1989 |
20.8% |
21.65% |
1988 |
8.5% |
14.2% |
1987 |
-7.0% |
5.0% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
7.2% |
9.1% |
5-year average |
4.1% |
5.5% |
10-year average |
1.1% |
15.7% |
Balanced Sub-Accounts
Combining Stock & Bonds
The Balanced sub-accounts, also referred to
as Total Return sub-accounts, mix investments in common stocks, bonds and
convertible securities to decrease volatility and stabilize market swings. The
goal of Balanced sub-accounts is to provide for both growth and income. The
Total Return basis (current yield plus or minus principal appreciation) is the
net amount earned during a given period, normally measured annually. The reason
for asset allocation and diversification is not only to reduce risk, but also to
receive competitive returns from the best performing investments.
The goal of Balanced
sub-accounts is to provide
for both growth and income.
Balanced
portfolios, like the growth and income accounts, provide a high dividend yield
that is sheltered from taxation within a variable annuity. The goal or main
objective of the Balanced sub-account is accomplished by taking advantage of
market rises through stock holdings and providing income with bond holdings.
The portfolio composition is almost always comprised of U.S. securities.
Balanced portfolios provide neither the best not the worst of both investment
worlds. They often outperform the different categories of bond funds when
things are good, although, they suffer greater percentage losses during stock market
declines. When interest rates are on the rise, Balanced sub-accounts will
typically decline less than bonds. When rates are falling, Balanced
sub-accounts will also outperform a bond portfolio if stocks are doing well.
Balanced sub-account investing is important
to wealth accumulation and is a perfect choice for the investor who cannot
decide between stocks and bonds. This hybrid security is ideal for an investor
who wants a sub-account manager to determine the portfolio's weighting of
stocks, bonds and convertibles.
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1990, 1987
and very slightly in 1993.
"Conservative investors should have no
more than 40% of their portfolios committed to this category. Moderate
investors could place up to 80% of their holdings in balanced subaccounts.
These high levels assume that a portfolio's diversification is largely
dependent on using only a few categories of variable annuity subaccounts. I
recommend a 20% commitment to this category for the conservative investor and
only 10% for the moderate portfolio. As is true with any category of variable
annuities, whenever larger dollar amounts are involved, more than one
subaccount per category should be used." - The Hundred Best Annuities You
Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
Average Annual Returns:
Balanced or Total Return
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-3.9% |
-2.8% |
1993 |
11.3% |
11.2% |
1992 |
6.8% |
7.1% |
1991 |
22.8% |
26.4% |
1990 |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
1989 |
18.5% |
19.6% |
1988 |
11.0% |
12.2% |
1987 |
2.1% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
4.3% |
5.1% |
5-year average |
7.0% |
7.8% |
10-year average |
10.4% |
11.5% |
Corporate Bond Sub-Accounts
Fixed Income
Corporate Bond sub-accounts invest in debt
instruments issued by corporations for building expansion, capital
improvements, equipment purchases or any number of other reasons corporations borrow
money. As the name implies, Corporate bond sub-accounts are primarily comprised
of bonds issued by corporations. Portfolios are almost always comprised of U.S.
issues.
Bonds are the second most common fixed-income
asset group that also offer fixed rates of return and return of principal. All
bonds introduce the element of market and/or credit risk into the decision
making process. The hazard of credit risk is that the issuer will default on
the interest and/or principal payments. The perils of market risk involve the
possibility that the market value of the bond could decrease as interest rates
increase and/or credit risk concerns could arise.
The only bonds considered to be without
credit risk are those backed by the U.S. government and certain government
agency securities. However, all fixed-income securities, including U.S.
government bonds, are subject to market risk.
To be specific, there are three major
classifications of fixed-income securities:
1.
Corporate,
2.
Government, and
3.
Municipal bonds.
Each offers a predictable and reliable income
stream and bonds tend to experience less market volatility than equities. The
rate of return on a fixed-income security depends on three factors:
1.
The general interest
rate environment,
2.
The creditworthiness of
the bonds, and
3.
The maturity of the
bond.
No municipal bond sub-accounts are offered in
variable annuity contracts because municipal bond interest is exempt from
federal taxes.
The major influence on bond prices, which
effects the value of the underlying sub-account, is interest rates. There is an
inverse relationship between interest rates and the value of the bond - when
one goes up, the other goes down. Bonds often include other features such as
conversion privileges, but are primarily purchased for their income stream.
"There is a direct
correlation between a
bond's price volatility and its maturity date."
- All About
Variable Annuities by Bruce F. Wells
Like most
debt investments, corporate bonds have a stated maturity date and pay a fixed
rate of interest. The amount of appreciation or loss of a corporate bond
sub-account primarily depends on the average maturity of the bonds in the
portfolio and the yield of the bonds in the sub-account's portfolio. These
sub-accounts have a wide range of maturities. The name of the portfolio will
often indicate if it is composed of short term or medium term obligations. Short
term bond sub-accounts are comprised of debt instruments with an average
maturity of five years or less and subject to very little interest rate risk or
reward. Medium term bond sub-accounts are comprised with maturities
averaging between 6 and 15 years and subject to one-third to one-half the risk
level of long term accounts. Long term bond sub-accounts are comprised
of maturities ranging from 16 to 30 years and will average eight percent
increase or decrease in share price for every cumulative one percent change in
interest rates. The greater the maturity, the more the portfolio's unit price
can change.
Usually purchased because of its reinvested
income stream, an investor's principal in a bond sub-account can fluctuate.
Thus, the issuer's creditworthiness should be a major consideration when
purchasing corporate bonds. For instance, blue-chip corporations rarely default
on either interest or principal payments, thus they are able to borrow capital
at the most favorable prevailing rate. For emerging companies and corporations
with weaker balance sheets and shorter track records, lenders extract higher
rates and impose stricter borrowing conditions.
Corporate bonds issued to foreign companies
are subject to the same credit risk conditions as are the domestic
corporations. As with the domestic corporations, major foreign corporations
borrow at a more favorable rate, while emerging and less financially stable
foreign corporations pay higher rates to borrow capital. A major consideration
before investing in foreign corporations are the currency exchange risks.
Unless payment is required in U.S. dollars, currency fluctuations can increase
leverage and exposure dramatically. Many sub-account managers handle this
additional risk by extensive country diversification and/or currency hedging.
Within this same category, we will also
consider Investment-Grade Corporate Sub-accounts. These seek current income,
safety and preservation of capital by investing in a portfolio of high-quality
corporate bonds. Investment-grade securities are defined as securities that are
rated investment grade by the various bond rating services. Chapter six will
cover the different rating agencies available. Bonds with the highest credit
rating will pay the least interest on their fixed-income debt. As the quality
of bonds decrease, interest rates increase. When the economy is thriving,
fixed-income money managers often lower their average portfolio rating to
receive additional yield. During less prosperous times, money managers have a
tendency toward raising their portfolio's quality rating.
Sub-account money managers have a vast array
of choices when purchasing investment-grade corporate bonds. All major U.S. and
foreign corporations issue debt securities. Creditworthiness is the money
manager's primary consideration when choosing. The second is the maturity date.
Investment-grade Bonds are also issued with varying maturity dates but are
categorized as short, intermediate and long term. The importance of maturity
cannot be overemphasized. Except in unusual market circumstances, bonds with
longer maturities pay higher interest rates and carry more market risk. To
lower this risk, fixed-income sub-account managers diversify their portfolios
by purchasing bonds with varying maturity dates.
"Over the 15-year period from 1979 to
1993, individual corporate bonds underperformed common stock by more than 40%.
Long-term corporate bonds averaged 11.6% compounded per year, versus 15.7% for
common stock and 17.0% for small stocks. A $10,000 investment in corporate
bonds grew to $51,700 over that same 15-year period; a similar initial
investment in common stocks grew to $89,000. For small stocks, the investment
grew to $105,600." - The Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K.
Williamson
Gordon K. Williamson goes on to relate:
"Within a longer time frame, corporate bonds have only outpaced inflation
on a pretax basis. A dollar invested in corporate bonds in 1945 grew to $15.01
by the beginning of 1995. This translates into an average compound return of
5.6% per year. During this same period, $1 inflated to $8.37, which translates
into an average annual inflation rate of 4.3%. Over the 50 years ending
December 31, 1994, the worst year for long-term corporate bonds, on a total
return basis (yield plus or minus principal appreciation or loss), was 1969,
when a loss of 8% was suffered. The best year was 1982, when corporate bonds
posted a gain of 44%."
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1993, 1991
and the three-year period ending December 31, 1994.
Average Annual Returns:
Corporate Bonds
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-5.0% |
-3.6% |
1993 |
9.8% |
8.6% |
1992 |
6.1% |
6.4% |
1991 |
15.2% |
14.3% |
1990 |
5.7% |
7.7% |
1989 |
10.7% |
11.7% |
1988 |
6.6% |
7.3% |
1987 |
0.5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
3.4% |
4.6% |
5-year average |
6.0% |
7.3% |
10-year average |
8.1% |
9.5% |
Government Bond Sub-Accounts
Fixed Income
This type of sub-account invests only in direct
and indirect U.S. government obligations. The goal of this sub-account is to
provide current income and safety of capital. The investments can include one
or more of the following:
Treasury bills
(T-Bills): Short term government
obligations that mature in three months, six months or one year. At maturity,
the investor is paid the face value. The profit is the difference between the
face value of the Treasury bill and the lower auction price paid for the
treasury bill. The minimum denomination is $10,000, plus $5,000 increments.
Treasury Notes
(T-Notes): Intermediate term
government obligations with maturities ranging from two to ten years. They are
issued at par and bear a specific rate of interest, which is paid every six
months. The minimum denomination is $5,000 for two and three year notes, plus
$5,000 increments or they are sold in increments of $1,000, plus $1,000
increments.
Treasury Bonds
(T-Bonds): Long term government
obligations with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years. They are issued at par
and bear a specific interest rate, which is paid every six months. They are
normally issued in increments of $5,000, with a minimum investment of $1,000,
with $1,000 increments.
Zero Coupon Bonds
(STRIPSs): Normally long term
government obligations for which interest payments are not distributed to the
bondholder until maturity. The standard zero coupon bonds are sold at a
discount that reflects the yield and mature at par.
The coupon portion is the interest rate. So a zero coupon means that no interest is paid currently on these bonds. Instead, an investor buys at a discount from the bond's face value. Every year the interest builds up within the bond itself, until it reaches face value at maturity.
The above comprise the entire marketable debt of the
U.S. government.
Government National
Mortgage Association bonds (GNMAs):
Pools of mortgage securities insured by the Federal Housing Administration or
guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. It then passes through each
of the homeowners' interest and principal payments to investors who then
receive a pro rata share. GNMA guarantees the performance of the mortgages.
This is considered an indirect obligation of the government, but is still
backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. GNMA is also referred
to as a Ginnie Mae. GNMAs are the highest yielding government-backed security
that an investor can get.
Federal National
Mortgage Association bonds (FNMAs):
Not issued by the government but are considered virtually identical in safety
to GNMAs.
Many government bond sub-accounts include
adjustable-rate instruments to reduce price volatility as the rates are
periodically reset to reflect current market conditions. Government bonds are
without credit risk but are subject to market risk, especially in the longer
maturities.
The average maturity of securities found in
government bond sub-accounts ranges widely. It is dependent upon the type of
sub-account and management's perceptions of risk and the future directions of
interest rates. As stated before, the major influence on bond prices is
interest rates. There is an inverse relationship between interest rates and the
value of the bond - when one goes up, the other goes down.
The major influence on bond
prices is interest rates.
These
portfolios can be attractive to bond investors because they provide
diversification and marketability that are not as readily available in direct
bond investments. The investor should remember that government and corporate
bonds are generally not a good investment, once inflation and taxes are
factored in. An investor who appreciates the cumulative effects of even low
levels of inflation should probably avoid government and corporate bonds except
during retirement.
"Over the 15 years ending December 31, 1994,
government bonds underperformed long-term corporate bonds only slightly - 11.5%
versus 11.6% for corporates. A $10,000 investment in U.S. government bonds grew
to $51,300 over the 15-year period; a similar initial investment in corporate
bonds grew to $51,7000." - The Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by
Gordon K. Williamson
Gordon K. Williamson goes on to relate:
"Within a longer time frame, government bonds have only slightly
outperformed inflation. A dollar invested in governments in 1945 grew to $12.42
by the beginning of 1995. This translates into an average compound return of
5.2% per year. Over the 50 years ending December 31, 1994, the worst year for
government bonds was 1967, when a loss of 9% was suffered. The best year was
1982, when government bonds posted a gain of 40%. All of these figures are
based on total return (current yield plus or minus any appreciation or loss of
principal).
"Over the 50 years ending December 31,
1994, there were forty-one 10-year periods (1944-1953, 1945-1954, and so on).
On a pretax basis, government bonds outperformed inflation during only fifteen
of the forty-one 10-year periods. Over the same 50-year period, there have been
thirty-one 20-year periods (1944-1963, 1945-1964, and so on). On a pretax
basis, government bonds have outperformed inflation during only eight of these
thirty-one periods. All eight of those 20-year periods ended between 1986 and
1994."
Since variable annuities charge a mortality
charge of normally one percent, it may be best to minimize bond sub-account
holdings. Expenses can eat away at the returns. For bond sub-accounts to be
most effective, they would need to be held for an average of at least ten years
to make them more worthwhile than mutual funds or direct ownership.
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1993,
1991, and 1989.
Average Annual Returns:
Government Bonds
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-4.6% |
-3.6% |
1993 |
8.3% |
8.0% |
1992 |
5.5% |
6.0% |
1991 |
14.7% |
14.1% |
1990 |
6.0% |
8.4% |
1989 |
12.8% |
12.0% |
1988 |
6.3% |
6.7% |
1987 |
-0.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
3.0% |
3.4% |
5-year average |
5.9% |
6.4% |
10-year average |
7.9% |
8.3% |
High-Yield Bond Sub-Accounts
Fixed-Income
High-Yield Bond sub-accounts invest in
lower-rated debt instruments. Bonds can be classified as either
High-yield bonds are classified as junk bonds
because of their lower ratings and additional risk of default. As with any risk
or reward picture, the opportunity for highly competitive yields is
counterbalanced by an exposure to higher credit risks and higher default rates
compared to investment grade bonds. Certain institutions and fiduciaries are
forbidden to invest their clients' monies in anything less than investment
grade. You might say that everything less than bank quality is considered
junk.
High-yield bonds can be subject to substantial
price erosion during slow economic times or when questions arise about a bond
issuer's creditworthiness. High-yield sub-accounts perform best during good
economic times. Such issues should be avoided by traditional investors during
recessionary times because the underlying corporations may experience
difficulty making interest and principal payments when business slows down. Do
not overlook the fact that, like common stocks, these bonds can perform very
well during the second half of a recession. Their volatility is normally
substantially higher than that of investment grade bonds.
"An individual investor
is best served by not
purchasing individual high-yield bonds, EVER."
- All About
Variable Annuities by Bruce F. Wells
When an
investor is interested in this type of sub-account, it should not be overly
stated that this is not for the idle investor. The high-yield bond market is
too sophisticated and should be left to professionals. As with aggressive
growth stocks, high-yield bonds can have a positive effect and reduce risk
through diversification. The question is not return, but risk exposure. The
majority of investors are comfortable with a moderate percentage of high-yield
bonds in their sub-accounts asset-allocation model.
Although high-yield bonds may exhibit greater
volatility than their bank quality peers, they are safer when it comes to
interest rate risk. This is because junk issues have high-yielding coupons and
shorter maturities than quality corporate bond sub-accounts. They fluctuate
less in value when interest rates change. So, during expansionary times in the
economy when interest rates are rising, high-yield sub-accounts will generally
drop less in value than investment grade corporate or government bond
sub-accounts. When interest rates are falling, corporate and government bonds
will often appreciate more in value than high-yeild sub-accounts.
In terms of economic cycles and important
technical factors, high-yield bonds resemble equities at least as much as they
do traditional bonds.
"Studies show that only 19% of the
average junk subaccount's total return is explained by the up- or down-movement
of the Lehman Brothers Gov't/Corp. Bond Index. To give an idea of how low this
number is: 94% of a typical high-quality corporate bond subaccount's
performance is explainable by movement in the same index. Indeed, even
international bond subaccounts have a higher correlation coefficient than junk:
25% of their performance can be explained by the index." - The Hundred
Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
"The high end of the junk bond market,
those debentures rated BBB and BB, have been able to withstand the general
beating the junk bond market incurred during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Moderate and conservative investors who want high-yield bonds as part of their
portfolio should focus on subaccounts that have a high percentage of their
assets in higher-rated bonds - BB or better.
Well over 90% of the junk bonds in existence
at the end of 1989 had been issued since 1982. Not surprisingly, the mutual
fund and variable annuity industries helped finance this growth. According to
Salomon Brothers, junk bond defaults averaged only 0.84% from 1980 to 1984.
This rate almost tripled from 1985 to 1989, when defaults averaged 2.2% per
year. In 1990, defaults surged to 4.6%. Analysis based on historical data did
not predict this huge increase in defaults. The default rate dropped to 1% in
1994. Junk bonds rated BB are going to perform closer to high-quality bonds
than will lower-rated junk. For example, during 1990, BB-rated bonds declined
only slightly in price and actually delivered positive total returns. Bonds
rated CCC declined over 36% in price.
"The table shows year-by-year, as well
as 3-, 5-, and 10-year averages for this investment category. The variable
annuity subaccount category is compared against the similar mutual fund
category. These performance figures are average figures, representing all funds
and subaccounts that fall within this investment objective.
The following table shows that the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1990 and
for the last five year period. The difference between these two investment
vehicles was very close for all other periods.
Average Annual Returns:
Government Bonds
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-4.0% |
-3.9% |
1993 |
18.1% |
18.9% |
1992 |
16.6% |
17.5% |
1991 |
35.7% |
37.3% |
1990 |
-7.7% |
-10.3% |
1989 |
-1.4% |
-0.2% |
1988 |
11.7% |
13.0% |
1987 |
0.5% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
9.9% |
10.6% |
5-year average |
10.6% |
10.5% |
10-year average |
9.0% |
9.9% |
Global & International
Bond Sub-Accounts
Fixed-Income
International bond sub-accounts, also referred
to as foreign sub-accounts are the fixed-income equivalent of their foreign
equity companions previously discussed. Global sub-accounts, also referred to
as World Bond sub-accounts, invest in securities all over the world (which
includes U.S. fixed-income securities) whereas international sub-accounts
invest in foreign fixed-income securities. This type of sub-account's objective
is high current income, safety and preservation of capital by investing in a
portfolio of foreign fixed-income securities. International sub-accounts
purchase securities issued in various foreign currencies such as Frances,
pounds, yen and deutsche marks. The fixed-income markets do involve some risks
that can be reduced through global diversification.
Global bond sub-accounts seek
higher interest rates -
no matter where the search may take them.
International
bond sub-accounts generally offer higher yields because of their real or
perceived higher risk. Like their foreign equity companions, these sub-accounts
are subject to market risk, currency exchange risk and varying degrees of
credit risk depending on the portfolio mix. Prospective investors need to be
aware of the potential changes in the value of the foreign currency relative to
the U.S. dollar.
Global bond sub-accounts normally invest in
bonds issued by stable governments in a handful of countries. These
sub-accounts try to avoid purchasing foreign government debt instruments from
politically or economically unstable countries. The objective of the Global
bond sub-accounts is higher interest rates, no matter where the search may take
them. Inclusion into the portfolio is dependent upon the money manger's
perception of the interest rates, the country's projected currency strength
against the U.S. dollar and the predicted political and economic stability.
Since countries move in different economic
cycles, so do the capital gain prospects of the bonds issued in those
countries. At any one time, a certain country may offer the highest returns. As
global economic cycles shift, a different country may then hold out the
greatest opportunities. Because foreign markets do not necessarily move in
tandem with U.S. markets, each country represents varying investment
opportunities at different times. International bond portfolios have out
performed their U.S. counterparts for the past 25 years. Using global accounts
diversifies an investor's portfolio thus reducing the investor's risk level.
There are not many variable annuities that have international or global bond
sub-accounts.
To evaluate the effect on interest rates and
bond values in the economic environment requires an understanding of two
important factors:
1.
Inflation: During inflationary periods, when too much money is
chasing too few goods, government tightening of money supply helps create a
blanket between an economy's cash resources and its available goods.
2.
Money Supply: This refers to the amount of cash made available for
spending, borrowing or investing. This money supply is controlled by the
central banks of each nation. Money supply is a primary tool for managing
inflation, interest rate and economic growth. A nation can tighten the money
supply thus helping to bring on disinflation, which is a decelerated loan
demand, reduced durable goods orders and falling prices. Disinflationary times
the underlying value of existing bonds is strengthened because interest rates
also fall. During disinflationary times also means lower yields for government
bond investors even though such factors contribute to a healthier economy.
The true enemy of bond
investors is inflation,
which drives interest rates higher.
When
nations put into effect policies to reduce inflation, thus reducing interest
rates, this can be quite disquieting to individuals who specifically invest for
a high monthly income. In reality, falling interest rates mean higher bond
values for investors seeking long term growth or a high total return. The true
enemy of bond investors is inflation, which drives interest rates higher.
Inflation diminishes bond values and erodes the buying power of the interest
income that investors receive. Investors seeking income need to find economies
where inflation is coming under control with interest rates high enough to
provide favorable bond yields. Not all bond markets will peak at the same
level, although they do tend to follow patterns. Investors should target those
countries where interest rates are at peak levels and inflation is falling.
This not only results in higher income but also creates significant potential
for capital appreciation when rates are ultimately declining.
A proven technique for
controlling market risk: Diversification.
Even if
investors have a primary goal of high income, they must consider credit and market
risk. By investing primarily in variable annuity sub-accounts that purchase
government guaranteed bonds from the world's most creditworthy nations, one can
get an extra measure of credit safety for payment of interest and repayment of
principal. Sub-account money managers can diversify across multiple markets
thus significantly reducing market risk as well. Diversification is a proven
technique for controlling market risk.
"Over the 25 years ending December 31,
1994, international bonds outperformed U.S. bonds and inflation. They have come
close to matching the return of U.S. common stocks. From 1964 through 1994,
there were twenty-one 10-year periods (e.g., 1964 - 1973, 1965 - 1974, and so
on). The Non-U.S. Bond Index outperformed the U.S. Bond Index in
eighteen of the past twenty-one 10-year periods from 1964 to 1994." - The
Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
"Each year, from 1984 through 1994, at
least three government bond markets have provided yields higher than those available
in the United States (Salomon Brothers, Inc.). With almost 50% of the world's
bonds found outside the United States, investors must look beyond U.S. borders
to find bonds offering yields and total returns that meet their investment
objectives."
A facet of investing in global bonds that
escapes many investors is that they offer more than just yield or income. They
can actually offer, with successful money management of these global bond
portfolios, three different important components:
1.
Capital appreciation,
2.
Yield, and
3.
Currency management.
While most investors understand the concept
of investing in global sub-accounts for the income, investors may lose out on
the capital appreciation opportunities if they strictly search for just
high yields. On the other hand, those investors looking solely for
capital appreciation may often give up current income. Investors who do not
apply the principles of currency management may see their investment
erode when exchange rates change adversely in global bonds.
As stated before, there is an inverse
relationship between bond values and interest rates. Investing in global bonds
provides for the potential for capital appreciation during periods of declining
interest rates. When interest rates fall, existing bond values climb. When
interest rates rise, existing bond values decline.
When interest rates fall,
existing bond values climb.
When interest rates rise, existing bond values decline.
Gordon K.
Williamson goes on to relate: "If you are limiting your bond portfolio to
U.S. investments, you are missing out on over half of the world's bond market
opportunities. Currently, over half of the world's government bonds are issued
in countries other than the United States. Investing in global bonds can help
position U.S investors' portfolios to benefit from capital growth opportunities
in world bond markets, while capturing income from those bonds. Each year, from
1985 through 1994, at least three government bond markets have provided yields
higher than those available in the United States.
"Inflation has historically been a key
factor in driving worldwide interest rates higher. Inflation diminishes bond
returns and erodes the buying power of the interest income that investors
receive. In the 1990s, a worldwide trend toward disinflation is developing. Our
own Federal Reserve has been actively battling inflation, and as a result has
been able to keep rates relatively low in an effort to strengthen the U.S.
economy. This trend should spread to other nations, such as Germany and Japan,
over the next few years. Targeting those countries where interest rates are at
peak levels and inflation is falling not only results in higher income but also
creates significant potential for capital appreciation.
"World bond subaccounts, particularly
those that have a high concentration in foreign issues, are an excellent
risk-reduction tool that should be utilized by the vast majority of investors.
Conservative portfolios should have no more than 50% of their diversified
holdings in world bonds, moderates should have no more than 30% and, aggressive
investors should have no more than 20%."
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1987 and
for the ten year period.
Average Annual Returns:
World Bonds
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-6.5% |
-5.8% |
1993 |
11.7% |
16.0% |
1992 |
0.1% |
2.5% |
1991 |
10.1% |
13.5% |
1990 |
11.9% |
12.7% |
1989 |
6.2% |
6.2% |
1988 |
3.0% |
4.5% |
1987 |
23.1% |
18.0% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
1.4% |
3.8% |
5-year average |
6.0% |
7.5% |
10-year average |
12.0% |
9.5% |
Specialty Portfolios
Specialty sub-accounts, also referred to as Sector
sub-accounts, allow a variable annuity investor an opportunity to invest in a
particular segment of the economy, such as timber, mining, airline, chemical,
automotive, paper, real estate or banking industries. Some sources include
metals and utilities as specialty portfolios, while other sources do not. Most,
if not all, of the companies represented in these sub-accounts are domestic.
Specialty sub-accounts are the most volatile
portfolio to invest in. This microinvestment approach adversely affects the
risk-reward investment scenario significantly because of the lack of
diversification. The whole point of hiring expert money managers and
diversifying investment assets is to increase the opportunity for more
consistent and competitive long term investment results. With this in mind,
specialty sub-accounts are basically counterproductive to that investment
objective. If an investor wishes to invest in a specialty sub-account, only a
small portion should be devoted to it. There are two reasons why this limitation
may be recommended:
1.
When the investor
chooses a specialty/sector sub-account, they are tying investment management
hands; their ability to find worthy stocks is limited by prospectus to a
certain industry. If this industry or sector is not performing well, the
sub-account will not do either - no matter how experienced the management team
is. Again, this hinders the goal of diversification.
2.
Specialty Sector
portfolios are considered very risky. The entire sub-account is prone to the
fortune or misfortune of a particular industry, so an investor could have a
combined substandard performance and above-average risk.
So why would anybody want to invest in
specialty portfolios? These portfolios allow a person to invest in real estate,
for example, without going through the trouble of buying and managing their own
properties. Also, this category can actually reduce the overall risk of an
investor's portfolio because it has a random or negative correlation meaning it
may go up when other parts of the portfolio are moving sideways or even going
down.
An investor needs to determine their time
horizon when considering whether or not to invest in a specialty portfolio. The
longer the holding period, the greater the chance that a specialty/sector sub-account
will turn out to be rewarding. It is not unusual for a specialty sub-account to
increase from 40% to 100% during the first year of ownership only to drop 25%
to 50% the following year. The specialty portfolio often has no consistency or
predictability.
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1990 and
1988.
Average Annual Returns:
Specialty
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-3.7% |
-2.3% |
1993 |
17.9% |
29.4% |
1992 |
2.9% |
4.6% |
1991 |
15.2% |
25.0% |
1990 |
-8.7% |
-9.2% |
1989 |
16.1% |
26.8% |
1988 |
10.6% |
7.1% |
1987 |
6.6% |
6.6% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
5.6% |
8.0% |
5-year average |
4.1% |
8.5% |
10-year average |
n/a |
11.5% |
Metals Sub-Accounts
Specialty Portfolios
The precious metals sub-accounts can also be
referred to as gold sub-accounts, though they often own minor positions in other
precious metals such as silver and platinum. The objective of the precious
metals sub-accounts is aggressive capital appreciation by investing in precious
metals and mining stocks throughout the world. These portfolios are the most
speculative sub-accounts available in most variable annuity contracts. They are
considered highly specialized and are usually considered specialty or sector
sub-accounts. These types of sub-accounts experience diminishing support during
periods of relatively low inflation rates and stable commodity prices and they
offer investment alternatives.
The proportion and type of metal held by a
sub-account can have a great impact on its performance and volatility. Outright
ownership of gold bullion is almost always less volatile than ownership of
stock of a gold mining company itself. Until the late 1970s many investment
advisors recommended a percentage allocation to gold funds to offset inflation.
The concept has been expanded to include other precious metals stocks and the
actual commodity. Silver has nearly twice the volatility of gold and yet has
not had any greater return over the long term.
"Metals subaccounts
should be avoided by anyone who cannot tolerate wide price swings in any single
part of a portfolio."
- The 100
Best Annuities You Can But by Gordon K. Williamson
Metal
sub-accounts are suitable investments during times of high inflation and
troubling world events. It may be surprising to most readers that historically
both metals have outperformed inflation by less than one percent annually. The
inclusion of this type of sub-account in an asset-allocation model can reduce a
portfolio's risk and volatility, despite the potential of its own volatility.
"Metal subaccounts are the riskiest category
of variable annuities. This is true regardless of the composition of the gold
subaccount. Although this is a high-risk investment when viewed alone,
ownership of a metals subaccount can actually reduce a portfolio's overall risk
level and often enhance its total return because gold usually has a negative
correlation to other investments. That is, when one investment goes down in
value, gold will often go up. Thus, a portfolio comprised strictly of
government bonds will actually exhibit more risk and less return than
one comprised of 90% governments and 10% in a metals subaccount." - The
Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K. Williamson
As the following table shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1994,
1992, 1991, 1990, and the three year and five year periods.
Average Annual Returns:
Metals
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-4.7% |
-11.7% |
1993 |
60.6% |
83.8% |
1992 |
-6.4% |
-15.0% |
1991 |
-3.0% |
-4.4% |
1990 |
-17.2% |
-23.9% |
1989 |
18.2% |
25.6% |
1988 |
-21.9% |
-17.8% |
1987 |
33.2% |
36.8% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
11.4% |
10.5% |
5-year average |
3.0% |
-0.5% |
10-year average |
n/a |
5.5% |
Utility Stock Sub-Accounts
Specialty Portfolios
Utility sub-accounts are similar to
fixed-income sub-accounts although it is technically an equity investment.
Their goal is to provide a competitive dividend yield through the purchase of
the stocks of major utilities, preserve capital assets and experience modest
capital appreciation. Another aspect of most of these sub-accounts is their
goal of long term growth. Even though utility portfolios offer this modest
capital appreciation, they can still offer attractive total returns and can be
particularly attractive investments during times of market uncertainty and
declining interest rates. Like metal sub-accounts, the financial standing for
this category can change in a matter of months, and should also not be omitted
from serious consideration. Particularly regarding utilities, a strong case can
be made for purchasing this industry group at depressed times.
Utility sub-account's objective is for both
long term growth and income. They invest in common stocks of utility companies
across the country. Somewhere between one-third and one-half of these
sub-accounts' total return comes from common stock dividends. Generally utility
sub-accounts stay away from speculative issues. Instead they focus on
well-establised companies that have a solid history of paying good dividends.
Utility sub-accounts may sound safe, and that is because they are considered
safe. Stocks of any category that rely on a high level of reinvested dividends
has a built-in safety cushion in that a comparatively high dividend income
means that an investor can count on the appreciation of the underlying issues.
Metal and Utility sub-accounts only represent
a couple specialty sub-account categories mentioned in this chapter.
Sub-accounts that invest in only one industry should be avoided by most
investors for two reasons:
1.
As with metal
sub-accounts, the utility sub-account's money manager is limited to choose only
securities from one particular geographic area or industry.
2.
Again, as with metal sub-accounts,
the track record of specialty sub-accounts as a whole is not good. In fact, as
a general category, these specialty sub-accounts represent the worst of both
financial worlds: above average risk and substandard returns.
Utility sub-accounts are the one exception to
the aforementioned description. Generally there are four things that determine
the profitability of a utility company:
Utility stock prices follow very closely the
long term bond market. If the economy is doing well and long term interest
rates go up, utility stock prices are likely to go down. Utility stock are also
at risk to a general stock market decline, although they are considered less
risky than other types of common stocks because of their dividends and the
monopoly position of most utilities.
If the economy is doing well
and long term interest rates go up,
utility stock prices are likely to go down.
"Worldwide,
there is a tremendous opportunity for growth in this industry. The average
per-capita production of electricity in many developing countries (2,500
kilowatt hours) is only one-fifth of the level in the United States
(12,000 kilowatt hours). All over the world, previously underdeveloped
countries are making economic strides as they move toward free market systems.
When emerging countries become developed economically, their citizens demand
higher standards of living. As a result, their requirements for electricity,
water, and telephones should rise dramatically. Also many countries are selling
their utility companies to public owners, opening a new arena for
investors." - The Hundred Best Annuities You Can Buy by Gordon K.
Williamson
"The net result of all of this for
investors is that variable annuities are beginning to offer global utilities
subaccounts. Increased diversification (allowing a subaccount to invest in
utility companies all over the world instead of just in the United States),
coupled with tremendous long-term growth potential, should make this a dynamic
industry group for the next few decades."
As the table below shows, the variable
annuity sub-accounts outperformed their mutual fund counterparts for 1990 and
1987.
Average Annual Returns:
Utility
Annuity Sub-Accounts versus
Mutual Funds
Year |
Sub-Account |
Mutual Fund |
1994 |
-9.9% |
-8.3% |
1993 |
9.4% |
14.7% |
1992 |
7.2% |
9.4% |
1991 |
15.9% |
20.2% |
1990 |
4.0% |
-2.4% |
1989 |
8.5% |
29.5% |
1988 |
6.7% |
13.3% |
1987 |
6.0% |
-4.2% |
|
|
|
3-year average |
2.5% |
5.2% |
5-year average |
4.7% |
6.8% |
10-year average |
n/a |
11.0% |
In Summary